Random effects modelling versus logistic regression for the inclusion of cluster-level covariates in propensity score estimation: A Monte Carlo simulation and registry cohort analysis.

Purpose: Surgeon and hospital-related features, such as volume, can be associated with treatment choices and outcomes. Accounting for these covariates with propensity score (PS) analysis can be challenging due to the clustered nature of the data. We studied six different PS estimation strategies for clustered data using random effects modelling (REM) compared with logistic regression. Methods: Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate variable cluster-level confounding intensity [odds ratio (OR) = 1.01-2.5] and cluster size (20-1,000 patients per cluster). The following PS estimation strategies were compared: i) logistic regression omitting cluster-level confounders; ii) logistic regression including cluster-level confounders; iii) the same as ii) but including cross-level interactions; iv), v), and vi), similar to i), ii), and iii), respectively, but using REM instead of logistic regression. The same strategies were tested in a trial emulation of partial versus total knee replacement (TKR) surgery, where observational versus trial-based estimates were compared as a proxy for bias. Performance metrics included bias and mean square error (MSE). Results: In most simulated scenarios, logistic regression, including cluster-level confounders, led to the lowest bias and MSE, for example, with 50 clusters × 200 individuals and confounding intensity OR = 1.5, a relative bias of 10%, and MSE of 0.003 for (i) compared to 32% and 0.010 for (iv). The results from the trial emulation also gave similar trends. Conclusion: Logistic regression, including patient and surgeon-/hospital-level confounders, appears to be the preferred strategy for PS estimation.

Characterising complex health needs and the use of preventive therapies in the older population: a population-based cohort analysis of UK primary care and hospital linked data.

BACKGROUND: While several definitions exist for multimorbidity, frailty or polypharmacy, it is yet unclear to what extent single healthcare markers capture the complexity of health-related needs in older people in the community. We aimed to identify and characterise older people with complex health needs based on healthcare resource use (unplanned hospitalisations or polypharmacy) or frailty using large population-based linked records. METHODS: In this cohort study, data was extracted from UK primary care records (CPRD GOLD), with linked Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient data. People aged > 65 on 1st January 2010, registered in CPRD for ≥ 1 year were included. We identified complex health needs as the top quintile of unplanned hospitalisations, number of prescribed medicines, and electronic frailty index. We characterised all three cohorts, and quantified point-prevalence and incidence rates of preventive medicines use. RESULTS: Overall, 90,597, 110,225 and 116,076 individuals were included in the hospitalisation, frailty, and polypharmacy cohorts respectively; 28,259 (5.9%) were in all three cohorts, while 277,332 (58.3%) were not in any (background population). Frailty and polypharmacy cohorts had the highest bi-directional overlap. Most comorbidities such as diabetes and chronic kidney disease were more common in the frailty and polypharmacy cohorts compared to the hospitalisation cohort. Generally, prevalence of preventive medicines use was highest in the polypharmacy cohort compared to the other two cohorts: For instance, one-year point-prevalence of statins was 64.2% in the polypharmacy cohort vs. 60.5% in the frailty cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Three distinct groups of older people with complex health needs were identified. Compared to the hospitalisation cohort, frailty and polypharmacy cohorts had more comorbidities and higher preventive therapies use. Research is needed into the benefit-risk of different definitions of complex health needs and use of preventive therapies in the older population.

Comparative risk of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome or thromboembolic events associated with different covid-19 vaccines: international network cohort study from five European countries and the US.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the comparative risk of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome or thromboembolic events associated with use of adenovirus based covid-19 vaccines versus mRNA based covid-19 vaccines. DESIGN: International network cohort study. SETTING: Routinely collected health data from contributing datasets in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the US. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (age ≥18 years) registered at any contributing database and who received at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine (ChAdOx1-S (Oxford-AstraZeneca), BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), or Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson)), from December 2020 to mid-2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome or venous or arterial thromboembolic events within the 28 days after covid-19 vaccination. Incidence rate ratios were estimated after propensity scores matching and were calibrated using negative control outcomes. Estimates specific to the database were pooled by use of random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 1 332 719 of 3 829 822 first dose ChAdOx1-S recipients were matched to 2 124 339 of 2 149 679 BNT162b2 recipients from Germany and the UK. Additionally, 762 517 of 772 678 people receiving Ad26.COV2.S were matched to 2 851 976 of 7 606 693 receiving BNT162b2 in Germany, Spain, and the US. All 628 164 Ad26.COV2.S recipients from the US were matched to 2 230 157 of 3 923 371 mRNA-1273 recipients. A total of 862 thrombocytopenia events were observed in the matched first dose ChAdOx1-S recipients from Germany and the UK, and 520 events after a first dose of BNT162b2. Comparing ChAdOx1-S with a first dose of BNT162b2 revealed an increased risk of thrombocytopenia (pooled calibrated incidence rate ratio 1.33 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.50) and calibrated incidence rate difference of 1.18 (0.57 to 1.8) per 1000 person years). Additionally, a pooled calibrated incidence rate ratio of 2.26 (0.93 to 5.52) for venous thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome was seen with Ad26.COV2.S compared with BNT162b2. CONCLUSIONS: In this multinational study, a pooled 30% increased risk of thrombocytopenia after a first dose of the ChAdOx1-S vaccine was observed, as was a trend towards an increased risk of venous thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome after Ad26.COV2.S compared with BNT162b2. Although rare, the observed risks after adenovirus based vaccines should be considered when planning further immunisation campaigns and future vaccine development.

Genetic risk and incident venous thromboembolism in middle-aged and older adults following COVID-19 vaccination.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination has been associated with increased venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, it is unknown whether genetic predisposition to VTE is associated with an increased risk of thrombosis following vaccination. METHODS: Using data from the UK Biobank, which contains in-depth genotyping and linked vaccination and health outcomes information, we generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) using 299 genetic variants. We prospectively assessed associations between PRS and incident VTE immediately after first- and the second-dose vaccination and among historical unvaccinated cohorts during the pre- and early pandemic. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for PRS-VTE associations using Cox models. RESULTS: Of 359 310 individuals receiving one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, 160 327 (44.6%) were males, and the mean age at the vaccination date was 69.05 (standard deviation [SD] 8.04) years. After 28- and 90-days' follow-up, 88 and 299 individuals developed VTE, respectively, equivalent to an incidence rate of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-1.08) and 0.92 (0.82-1.04) per 100 000 person-days. The PRS was significantly associated with a higher risk of VTE (HR per 1 SD increase in PRS, 1.41 (1.15-1.73) in 28 days and 1.36 (1.22-1.52) in 90 days). Similar associations were found in the historical unvaccinated cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The strength of genetic susceptibility with post-COVID-19-vaccination VTE is similar to that seen in historical data. Additionally, the observed PRS-VTE associations were equivalent for adenovirus- and mRNA-based vaccines. These findings suggest that, at the population level, the VTE that occurred after the COVID-19 vaccination has a similar genetic etiology to the conventional VTE.

Trends of Dispensed Opioids in Catalonia, Spain, 2007-19: A Population-Based Cohort Study of Over 5 Million Individuals.

Objective: To characterize the trend of opioid use (number of users, dispensations and oral morphine milligram equivalents) in Catalonia (Spain). Design, setting, and participants: This population-based cohort study included all individuals aged 18 years or older, registered in the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP), which covers >75% of the population in Catalonia, Spain, from 1 January 2007, to 31 December 2019. Main exposure and outcomes: The exposures were all commercialized opioids and their combinations (ATC-codes): codeine, tramadol, oxycodone, tapentadol, fentanyl, morphine, and other opioids (dihydrocodeine, hydromorphone, dextropropoxyphene, buprenorphine, pethidine, pentazocine). The main outcomes were the annual figures per 1,000 individuals of 1) opioid users, 2) dispensations, and 3) oral morphine milligram equivalents (MME). Results were stratified separately by opioid types, age (5-year age groups), sex (male or female), living area (rural or urban), and socioeconomic status (from least, U1, to most deprived, U5). The overall trends were quantified using the percentage change (PC) between 2007 and 2019. Results: Among 4,656,197 and 4,798,114 residents from 2007 to 2019, the number of opioid users, dispensations and morphine milligram equivalents per 1,000 individuals increased 12% (percentage change: 95% confidence interval (CI) 11.9-12.3%), 105% (95% confidence interval 83%-126%) and 339% (95% CI 289%-390%) respectively. Tramadol represented the majority of opioid use in 2019 (61, 59, and 54% of opioid users, dispensations, and total MME, respectively). Individuals aged 80 years or over reported the sharpest increase regarding opioid users (PC: 162%), dispensations (PC: 424%), and MME (PC: 830%). Strong opioids were increasingly prescribed for non-cancer pains over the years. Conclusion: Despite the modest increase of opioid users, opioid dispensations and MME increased substantially, particularly in the older population. In addition, strong opioids were incrementally indicated for non-cancer pains over the years. These findings suggest a transition of opioid prescriptions from intermittent to chronic and weak to strong and call for more rigorous opioid stewardship.

Association between covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and risk of immune mediated neurological events: population based cohort and self-controlled case series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between covid-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and risk of immune mediated neurological events. DESIGN: Population based historical rate comparison study and self-controlled case series analysis. SETTING: Primary care records from the United Kingdom, and primary care records from Spain linked to hospital data. PARTICIPANTS: 8 330 497 people who received at least one dose of covid-19 vaccines ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or Ad.26.COV2.S between the rollout of the vaccination campaigns and end of data availability (UK: 9 May 2021; Spain: 30 June 2021). The study sample also comprised a cohort of 735 870 unvaccinated individuals with a first positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2 from 1 September 2020, and 14 330 080 participants from the general population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were incidence of Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and transverse myelitis. Incidence rates were estimated in the 21 days after the first vaccine dose, 90 days after a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, and between 2017 and 2019 for background rates in the general population cohort. Indirectly standardised incidence ratios were estimated. Adjusted incidence rate ratios were estimated from the self-controlled case series. RESULTS: The study included 4 376 535 people who received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, 3 588 318 who received BNT162b2, 244 913 who received mRNA-1273, and 120 731 who received Ad26.CoV.2; 735 870 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection; and 14 330 080 people from the general population. Overall, post-vaccine rates were consistent with expected (background) rates for Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Self-controlled case series was conducted only for Bell's palsy, given limited statistical power, but with no safety signal seen for those vaccinated. Rates were, however, higher than expected after SARS-CoV-2 infection. For example, in the data from the UK, the standardised incidence ratio for Bell's palsy was 1.33 (1.02 to 1.74), for encephalomyelitis was 6.89 (3.82 to 12.44), and for Guillain-Barré syndrome was 3.53 (1.83 to 6.77). Transverse myelitis was rare (<5 events in all vaccinated cohorts) and could not be analysed. CONCLUSIONS: No safety signal was observed between covid-19 vaccines and the immune mediated neurological events of Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and transverse myelitis. An increased risk of Bell's palsy, encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome was, however, observed for people with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Unicompartmental compared with total knee replacement for patients with multimorbidities: a cohort study using propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting.

BACKGROUND: Although routine NHS data potentially include all patients, confounding limits their use for causal inference. Methods to minimise confounding in observational studies of implantable devices are required to enable the evaluation of patients with severe systemic morbidity who are excluded from many randomised controlled trials. OBJECTIVES: Stage 1 - replicate the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT), a surgical randomised controlled trial comparing unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Stage 2 - compare the risk benefits and cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement surgery in patients with severe systemic morbidity who would have been ineligible for TOPKAT using the validated methods from stage 1. DESIGN: This was a cohort study. SETTING: Data were obtained from the National Joint Registry database and linked to hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) and patient-reported outcome data. PARTICIPANTS: Stage 1 - people undergoing unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery who met the TOPKAT eligibility criteria. Stage 2 - participants with an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of ≥ 3. INTERVENTION: The patients were exposed to either unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the postoperative Oxford Knee Score. The secondary outcome measures were 90-day postoperative complications (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and prosthetic joint infection) and 5-year revision risk and mortality. The main outcome measures for the health economic analysis were health-related quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions) and NHS hospital costs. RESULTS: In stage 1, propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting replicated the results of TOPKAT. Propensity score adjustment, propensity score matching and instrumental variables did not. Stage 2 included 2256 unicompartmental knee replacement patients and 57,682 total knee replacement patients who had severe comorbidities, of whom 145 and 23,344 had linked Oxford Knee Scores, respectively. A statistically significant but clinically irrelevant difference favouring unicompartmental knee replacement was observed, with a mean postoperative Oxford Knee Score difference of < 2 points using propensity score stratification; no significant difference was observed using inverse probability weighting. Unicompartmental knee replacement more than halved the risk of venous thromboembolism [relative risk 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; relative risk 0.39 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 0.96) using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement was not associated with myocardial infarction or prosthetic joint infection using either method. In the long term, unicompartmental knee replacement had double the revision risk of total knee replacement [hazard ratio 2.70 (95% confidence interval 2.15 to 3.38) using propensity score stratification; hazard ratio 2.60 (95% confidence interval 1.94 to 3.47) using inverse probability weighting], but half of the mortality [hazard ratio 0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; insignificant effect using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement had lower costs and higher quality-adjusted life-year gains than total knee replacement for stage 2 participants. LIMITATIONS: Although some propensity score methods successfully replicated TOPKAT, unresolved confounding may have affected stage 2. Missing Oxford Knee Scores may have led to information bias. CONCLUSIONS: Propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting successfully replicated TOPKAT, implying that some (but not all) propensity score methods can be used to evaluate surgical innovations and implantable medical devices using routine NHS data. Unicompartmental knee replacement was safer and more cost-effective than total knee replacement for patients with severe comorbidity and should be considered the first option for suitable patients. FUTURE WORK: Further research is required to understand the performance of propensity score methods for evaluating surgical innovations and implantable devices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as EUPAS17435. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

We compared the risks and benefits of partial and total knee replacements in NHS patients with a complex medical history who would normally be excluded from randomised trials on this topic. We used information that was collected during hospital appointments for people who had a knee replacement between 2009 and 2016. It is difficult to directly compare the two groups because each individual patient has a different medical history. We tested advanced statistical methods to account for these differences. In stage 1, we showed that some of these advanced statistical methods could replicate the results of a recently published surgical trial using routine data from the NHS. We compared patients in the trial with similar patients who were operated on in the NHS. Three of the proposed methods showed results similar to those obtained from the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT). In stage 2, we used the successful methods from stage 1 to study the risks, benefits and costs of partial and total knee replacement surgery in patients with complex medical histories. Two of the statistical methods found that patients who had a partial knee replacement had less self-reported pain and better function after surgery than patients who had a total knee replacement. All three methods found that partial knee replacement was safer, was associated with a lower risk of blood clots (a known complication of knee surgery) and had lower mortality over 5 years. However, patients who had a partial knee replacement were twice as likely as those with a total knee replacement to need a second surgery within 5 years. We found that partial knee replacements were less costly to the NHS and were associated with better overall quality of life for patients than total knee replacement.

Bariatric surgery increases the rate of major fracture: self-controlled case series study in UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Conflicting results exist about the relationship between bariatric surgery and fracture risk. Also, prediction of who is at increased risk of fracture after bariatric surgery is not currently available. Hence, we used a combination of a self-controlled case series (SCCS) study to establish the association between bariatric surgery and fracture, and develop a prediction model for postoperative fracture risk estimation using a cohort study. Patients from UK Primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD linked to Hospital Episode Statistics undergoing bariatric surgery with body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 between 1997 and 2018 were included in the cohort. Those sustaining one or more fractures in the 5 years before or after surgery were included in the SCCS. Fractures were considered in three categories: (i) any except skull and digits (primary outcome); (ii) major (hip, vertebrae, wrist/forearm, and humerus); and (iii) peripheral (forearm and lower leg). Of 5487 participants, 252 (4.6%) experienced 272 fractures (of which 80 were major and 135 peripheral) and were included in the SCCS analyses. Major fracture risk increased after surgery, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 2.77 (95% CI, 1.34-5.75) and 3.78 (95% CI, 1.42-10.08) at ≤3 years and 3.1 to 5 years postsurgery when compared to 5 years prior to surgery, respectively. Any fracture risk was higher only in the 2.1 to 5 years following surgery (IRR 1.73; 95% CI, 1.08-2.77) when compared to 5 years prior to surgery. No excess risk of peripheral fracture after surgery was identified. A prediction tool for major fracture was developed using 5487 participants included in the cohort study. It was also internally validated (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC ROC] 0.70) with use of anxiolytics/sedatives/hypnotics and female as major predictors. Hence, major fractures are nearly threefold more likely after bariatric surgery. A simple prediction tool with five variables identifies high risk patients for major fracture. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Oxygen-enhanced MRI MOLLI T1 mapping during chemoradiotherapy in anal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Oxygen-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and T1-mapping was used to explore its effectiveness as a prognostic imaging biomarker for chemoradiotherapy outcome in anal squamous cell carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: T2-weighted, T1 mapping, and oxygen-enhanced T1 maps were acquired before and after 8-10 fractions of chemoradiotherapy and examined whether the oxygen-enhanced MRI response relates to clinical outcome. Patient response to treatment was assessed 3 months following completion of chemoradiotherapy. A mean T1 was extracted from manually segmented tumour regions of interest and a paired two-tailed t-test was used to compare changes across the patient population. Regions of subcutaneous fat and muscle tissue were examined as control ROIs. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in T1 of the tumour ROIs across patients following the 8-10 fractions of chemoradiotherapy (paired t-test, p < 0.001, n = 7). At baseline, prior to receiving chemoradiotherapy, there were no significant changes in T1 across patients from breathing oxygen (n = 9). In the post-chemoRT scans (8-10 fractions), there was a significant decrease in T1 of the tumour ROIs across patients when breathing 100% oxygen (paired t-test, p < 0.001, n = 8). Out of the 12 patients from which we successfully acquired a visit 1 T1-map, only 1 patient did not respond to treatment, therefore, we cannot correlate these results with clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: These clinical data demonstrate feasibility and potential for T1-mapping and oxygen enhanced T1-mapping to indicate perfusion or treatment response in tumours of this nature. These data show promise for future work with a larger cohort containing more non-responders, which would allow us to relate these measurements to clinical outcome.

Response of FDG avid pelvic bone marrow to concurrent chemoradiation for anal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To determine if suppression of active bone marrow, as defined on FDG PETCT, is seen in on-treatment imaging of anal cancer patients receiving concurrent chemoradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Scans from 26 patients participating in the ART trial (full title: Anal squamous cell carcinoma: Investigation of functional imaging during chemoRadioTherapy), a single center observational study with FDG PETCT prior to radiotherapy and at fraction 8-10 of concurrent chemoradiation were analysed. Active bone marrow was contoured in both the pelvis and un-irradiated thoracic spine. SUV and volume of active bone marrow after 8-10 fractions of treatment were compared to baseline. Dose metrics to pelvic active bone marrow were extracted and compared to reduction in SUV/active bone marrow volume and to blood count nadir using linear regression. RESULTS: Suppression of active bone marrow is seen in the pelvis by a reduction in mean SUV and volume of active bone marrow after 8-10 fractions of treatment. Suppression is not seen in un-irradiated thoracic spine. Dose metrics were associated with reduced SUV and reduced volume of active bone marrow. Volume of active bone marrow receiving <20 Gy was associated with WCC/ANC nadir. 20 Gy was identified as the most likely clinically meaningful dose threshold for toxicity. Volume of active bone marrow receiving <20 Gy correlated to WCC and ANC with an increase of 100 cc being associated with an increase of 0.4 and 0.3 respectively. CONCLUSION: The effect of concurrent chemoradiation in suppression of active bone marrow is seen in on-treatment FDG PETCT scans. Chemotherapy appears well tolerated after 2 weeks of treatment.

Results of a phase II clinical trial of 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate in patients with BRCA-defective tumours.

BACKGROUND: Tumour cells with BRCA1/2 gene mutations demonstrate increased sensitivity to platinum and poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) was found to selectively kill BRCA-defective cells in a xenograft model as effectively as the PARP inhibitor AG014699, even after these cells acquired resistance to a PARP inhibitor or cisplatin. METHODS: This phase II single-arm trial investigated the activity of 6MP 55-75 mg/m2 per day, and methotrexate 15-20 mg/m2 per week in advanced breast or platinum-resistant ovarian cancer patients with a BRCA1/2 germline mutation, who had progressed after ≥1 previous line of chemotherapy. The primary outcome was objective response including stable disease (SD) as an assessment of clinical benefit rate (CBR), at 8 weeks, by RECIST v1.1. Secondary outcomes included overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: In total, 67 evaluable patients were recruited; 55 ovarian and 11 breast cancer patients. In total, 21 patients had SD (31%), one had a partial response (1.5%); CBR was 33% at 8 weeks. In total, 12/67 patients (18%) had SD at 16 weeks. In total, five ovarian cancer patients had SD for over 200 days. Median OS was 10.3 months (95% CI 6.9-14.5), median PFS 1.9 months (1.7-2.8). CONCLUSIONS: The overall activity of 6MP and methotrexate in these patients was low; however, there was a small group of patients who appeared to derive longer-term clinical benefit. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01432145 http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov.

Buparlisib with thoracic radiotherapy and its effect on tumour hypoxia: A phase I study in patients with advanced non-small cell lung carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Pre-clinically, phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) inhibition radiosensitises tumours by increasing intrinsic radiosensitivity and by reducing tumour hypoxia. We assessed whether buparlisib, a class 1 PI3K inhibitor, can be safely combined with radiotherapy in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) and investigated its effect on tumour hypoxia. METHODS: This was a 3 + 3 dose escalation and dose expansion phase I trial in patients with advanced NSCLC. Buparlisib dose levels were 50 mg, 80 mg and 100 mg once daily orally for 2 weeks, with palliative thoracic radiotherapy (20 Gy in 5 fractions) delivered during week 2. Tumour hypoxic volume (HV) was measured using 18F-fluoromisonidazole positron-emission tomography-computed tomography at baseline and following 1 week of buparlisib. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were recruited with 9 patients evaluable for maximum tolerated dose (MTD) analysis. No dose-limiting toxicity was reported; therefore, 100 mg was declared the MTD, and 10 patients received this dose in the expansion phase. Ninety-four percent of treatment-related adverse events were ≤grade 2 with fatigue (67%), nausea (24%) and decreased appetite (19%) most common per patient. One serious adverse event (grade 3 hypoalbuminaemia) was possibly related to buparlisib. No unexpected radiotherapy toxicity was reported. Ten (67%) of 15 patients evaluable for imaging analysis were responders with 20% median reduction in HV at the MTD. CONCLUSION: This is the first clinical trial to combine a PI3K inhibitor with radiotherapy in NSCLC and investigate the effects of PI3K inhibition on tumour hypoxia. This combination was well tolerated and PI3K inhibition reduced hypoxia, warranting investigation into whether this novel class of radiosensitisers can improve radiotherapy outcomes.

MRE11 as a Predictive Biomarker of Outcome After Radiation Therapy in Bladder Cancer.

PURPOSE: Organ-confined muscle-invasive bladder cancer is treated with cystectomy or bladder preservation techniques, including radiation therapy. There are currently no biomarkers to inform management decisions and aid patient choice. Previously we showed high levels of MRE11 protein, assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC), predicted outcome after radiation therapy, but not cystectomy. Therefore, we sought to develop the MRE11 IHC assay for clinical use and define its relationship to clinical outcome in samples from 2 major clinical trials. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Samples from the BCON and BC2001 randomized controlled trials and a cystectomy cohort were stained using automated IHC methods and scored for MRE11 in 3 centers in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: Despite step-wise creation of scoring cards and standard operating procedures for staining and interpretation, there was poor intercenter scoring agreement (kappa, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.47). No significant associations between MRE11 scores and cause-specific survival were identified in BCON (n = 132) and BC2001 (n = 221) samples. Reoptimized staining improved agreement between scores from BCON tissue microarrays (n = 116), but MRE11 expression was not prognostic for cause-specific survival. CONCLUSIONS: Manual IHC scoring of MRE11 was not validated as a reproducible biomarker of radiation-based bladder preservation success. There is a need for automated quantitative methods or a reassessment of how DNA-damage response relates to clinical outcomes.

Study protocol: a multi-centre randomised study of induction chemotherapy followed by capecitabine ± nelfinavir with high- or standard-dose radiotherapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (SCALOP-2).

BACKGROUND: Induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiation is a treatment option for patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). However, overall survival is comparable to chemotherapy alone and local progression occurs in nearly half of all patients, suggesting chemoradiation strategies should be optimised. SCALOP-2 is a randomised phase II trial testing the role of radiotherapy dose escalation and/or the addition of the radiosensitiser nelfinavir, following induction chemotherapy of gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel (GEMABX). A safety run-in phase (stage 1) established the nelfinavir dose to administer with chemoradiation in the randomised phase (stage 2). METHODS: Patients with locally advanced, inoperable, non-metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma receive three cycles of induction GEMABX chemotherapy prior to radiological assessment. Those with stable/responding disease are eligible for further trial treatment. In Stage 1, participants received one further cycle of GEMABX followed by capecitabine-chemoradiation with escalating doses of nelfinavir in a rolling-six design. Stage 2 aims to register 262 and randomise 170 patients with responding/stable disease to one of five arms: capecitabine with high- (arms C + D) or standard-dose (arms A + B) radiotherapy with (arms A + C) or without (arms B + D) nelfinavir, or three more cycles of GEMABX (arm E). Participants allocated to the chemoradiation arms receive another cycle of GEMABX before chemoradiation begins. Co-primary outcomes are 12-month overall survival (radiotherapy dose-escalation question) and progression-free survival (nelfinavir question). Secondary outcomes include toxicity, quality of life, disease response rate, resection rate, treatment compliance, and CA19-9 response. SCALOP-2 incorporates a detailed radiotherapy quality assurance programme. DISCUSSION: SCALOP-2 aims to optimise chemoradiation in LAPC and incorporates a modern induction regimen. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Eudract No: 2013-004968-56; ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT02024009.

Opioid use, postoperative complications, and implant survival after unicompartmental versus total knee replacement: a population-based network study.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around whether to use unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) or total knee replacement (TKR) for individuals with osteoarthritis confined to a single compartment of the knee. We aimed to emulate the design of the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT) using routinely collected data to assess whether the efficacy results reported in the trial translate into effectiveness in routine practice, and to assess comparative safety. METHODS: We did a population-based network study using data from four US and one UK health-care database, part of the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network. The inclusion criteria were the same as those for TOPKAT; briefly, we identified patients aged at least 40 years with osteoarthritis who had undergone UKR or TKR and who had available data for at least one year prior to surgery. Patients were excluded if they had evidence of previous knee arthroplasty, knee fracture, knee surgery (except diagnostic), rheumatoid arthritis, infammatory arthropathies, or septic arthritis. Opioid use from 91-365 days after surgery, as a proxy for persistent pain, was assessed for all participants in all databases. Postoperative complications (ie, venous thromboembolism, infection, readmission, and mortality) were assessed over the 60 days after surgery and implant survival (as measured by revision procedures) was assessed over the 5 years after surgery. Outcomes were assessed in all databases, except for readmission, which was assessed in three of the databases, and mortality, which was assessed in two of the databases. Propensity score matched Cox proportional hazards models were fitted for each outcome. Calibrated hazard ratios (cHRs) were generated for each database to account for observed differences in control outcomes, and cHRs were then combined using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: 33 867 individuals who received UKR and 557 831 individuals who received TKR between Jan 1, 2005, and April 30, 2018, were eligible for matching. 32 379 with UKR and 250 377 with TKR were propensity score matched and informed the analyses. UKR was associated with a reduced risk of postoperative opioid use (cHR from meta-analysis 0·81, 95% CI 0·73-0·90) and a reduced risk of venous thromboembolism (0·62, 0·36-0·95), whereas no difference was seen for infection (0·85, 0·51-1·37) and readmission (0·79, 0·47-1·25). Evidence was insufficient to conclude whether there was a reduction in risk of mortality. UKR was also associated with an increased risk of revision (1·64, 1·40-1·94). INTERPRETATION: UKR was associated with a reduced risk of postoperative opioid use compared with TKR, which might indicate a reduced risk of persistent pain after surgery. UKR was associated with a lower risk of venous thromboembolism but an increased risk of revision compared with TKR. These findings can help to inform shared decision making for individuals eligible for knee replacement surgery. FUNDING: EU/European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations Innovative Medicines Initiative (2) Joint Undertaking (EHDEN).

[18F]Fluoromisonidazole PET in rectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: There is an increasing interest in developing predictive biomarkers of tissue hypoxia using functional imaging for personalised radiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer that are considered for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT). The study explores [18F]fluoromisonidazole ([18F]FMISO) positron emission tomography (PET) scans for predicting clinical response in rectal cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant CRT. METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven rectal adenocarcinoma were imaged at 0-45 min, 2 and 4 h, at baseline and after 8-10 fractions of CRT (week 2). The first 6 patients did not receive an enema (the non-enema group) and the last 4 patients received an enema before PET-CT scan (the enema group). [18F]FMISO production failed on 2 occasions. Static PET images at 4 h were analysed using tumour-to-muscle (T:M) SUVmax and tumour-to-blood (T:B) SUVmax. The 0-45 min dynamic PET scans were analysed using Casciari model to report hypoxia and perfusion. Akaike information criteria (AIC) were used to compare data fittings for different pharmacokinetic models. Pathological tumour regression grade was scored using American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7.0. Shapiro-Wilk test was used to evaluate the normality of the data. RESULTS: Five out of eleven (5/11) patients were classed as good responders (AJCC 0/1 or good clinical response) and 6/11 as poor responders (AJCC 2/3 or poor clinical response). The median T:M SUVmax was 2.14 (IQR 0.58) at baseline and 1.30 (IQR 0.19) at week 2, and the corresponding median tumour hypoxia volume was 1.08 (IQR 1.31) cm3 and 0 (IQR 0.15) cm3, respectively. The median T:B SUVmax was 2.46 (IQR 1.50) at baseline and 1.61 (IQR 0.14) at week 2, and the corresponding median tumour hypoxia volume was 5.68 (IQR 5.86) cm3 and 0.76 (IQR 0.78) cm3, respectively. For 0-45 min tumour modelling, the median hypoxia was 0.92 (IQR 0.41) min-1 at baseline and 0.70 (IQR 0.10) min-1 at week 2. The median perfusion was 4.10 (IQR 1.71) ml g-1 min-1 at baseline and 2.48 (IQR 3.62) ml g-1 min-1 at week 2. In 9/11 patients with both PET scans, tumour perfusion decreased in non-responders and increased in responders except in one patient. None of the changes in other PET parameters showed any clear trend with clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study with small number of datasets revealed significant challenges in delivery and interpretation of [18F]FMISO PET scans of rectal cancer. There are two principal problems namely spill-in from non-tumour tracer activity from rectal and bladder contents. Emphasis should be made on reducing spill-in effects from the bladder to improve data quality. This preliminary study has shown fundamental difficulties in the interpretation of [18F]FMISO PET scans for rectal cancer, limiting its clinical applicability.

A phase-I trial of pre-operative, margin intensive, stereotactic body radiation therapy for pancreatic cancer: the 'SPARC' trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Standard therapy for borderline-resectable pancreatic cancer in the UK is surgery with adjuvant chemotherapy, but rates of resection with clear margins are unsatisfactory and overall survival remains poor. Meta-analysis of single-arm studies shows the potential of neo-adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy but the relative radio-resistance of pancreatic cancer means the efficacy of conventional dose schedules is limited. Stereotactic radiotherapy achieves sufficient accuracy and precision to enable pre-operative margin-intensive dose escalation with the goal of increasing rates of clear resection margins and local disease control. METHODS/DESIGN: SPARC is a "rolling-six" design single-arm study to establish the maximum tolerated dose for margin-intensive stereotactic radiotherapy before resection of pancreatic cancer at high risk of positive resection margins. Eligible patients will have histologically or cytologically proven pancreatic cancer defined as borderline-resectable per National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria or operable tumour in contact with vessels increasing the risk of positive margin. Up to 24 patients will be recruited from up to 5 treating centres and a 'rolling-six' design is utilised to minimise delays and facilitate ongoing recruitment during dose-escalation. Radiotherapy will be delivered in 5 daily fractions and surgery, if appropriate, will take place 5-6 weeks after radiotherapy. The margin-intense radiotherapy concept includes a systematic method to define the target volume for a simultaneous integrated boost in the region of tumour-vessel infiltration, and up to 4 radiotherapy dose levels will be investigated. Maximum tolerated dose is defined as the highest dose at which no more than 1 of 6 patients or 0 of 3 patients experience a dose limiting toxicity. Secondary endpoints include resection rate, resection margin status, response rate, overall survival and progression free survival at 12 and 24 months. Translational work will involve exploratory analyses of the cytological and humoral immunological responses to stereotactic radiotherapy in pancreatic cancer. Radiotherapy quality assurance of target definition and radiotherapy planning is enforced with pre-trial test cases and on-trial review. Recruitment began in April 2015. DISCUSSION: This prospective multi-centre study aims to establish the maximum tolerated dose of pre-operative margin-intensified stereotactic radiotherapy in pancreatic cancer at high risk of positive resection margins with a view to subsequent definitive comparison with other neoadjuvant treatment options. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN14138956 . Funded by CRUK.